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To Russians there is nobody to give birth
The quantity of Russians the next years can will be reduced to 110 million to It, according to representatives of the United Nations, the considerable quantity of abortions, complications promotes during pregnancy and the politician of the Russian authorities. Growth of birth rate of last years will stop, as soon as into reproductive age will start to enter born in 1990th years.
The population of Russia is reduced because of high level of complications during pregnancy and critically high level of the abortions, the caused themes that the Russian women almost do not use means of modern contraception. To such conclusion experts of Fund of the United Nations concerning the population (UNFPA), delivered on Friday the report on a course of achievement by a heel of "the Purpose of a millenium» – reductions of parent death rate on 75 % have come.
Russia is in the lead on number of abortions among all neighbours. On each one thousand births it is necessary 951 case of interruption of pregnancy. On the average across the CIS countries this indicator makes 541 abortion on one thousand births.
These figures can be incomplete. «Existence of practice of illegal abortions remains a problem which does not allow to receive the complete picture reflecting a true situation (with pregnancy interruption. –» Gazeta.Ru »)», – is told in the report. By Fund estimations, only the quarter of pairs in Russia uses those or other measures of protection that« for the country with an average подушевым the income is very low indicator ». Abortion still is considered the best way of contraception.
However, the situation with sorts in Russia has during the last years improved, experts of the United Nations recognised. Parent death rate since 1994 was reduced more than half, has improved a situation and with a child-bearing: if in 2000 without any complications for mother or the child occurred only 31,1 % of sorts by 2007 this indicator has made 36,7 %.
Nevertheless level of parent death rate in Russia remains twice big, than on the average on all region of Europe and the Central Asia.
On 100 thousand births it is necessary an order of 24 parent death whereas on 53 countries of region it is on the average fixed on the average such 13 cases in a year. It only the registered data. By expert estimations of the World organisation of public health services, figures 2006 for Russia – 28 death on 100 thousand births.
In such regions as St.-Petersburg or the Kaliningrad region, parent death rate considerably above, than on the average on the country, «it is possible, in connection with high level of a narcotism and HIV infections», authors of the report mark.
If not to consider country of Western Europe, the Russian indicators will appear averages. According to ЮНФПА, since 1994 parent death rate in countries of Eastern Europe and the Central Asia was cut by half, about 51 cases to 24 on 100 thousand births. But the organisation still has big doubts that health of mothers became valid one of priorities of the Russian policy. There are questions and to quality of system of reproductive public health services and its availability, especially for маргинальных groups.
The situation with parent health supplements a sad demographic picture in Russia.
According to United Nations forecasts, by 2050 the population of Russia will be reduced to 22 % and will make an order of 110 million persons.
Growth of birth rate of last years and for the first time for Post-Soviet time fixed in August of this year should not mislead an increase in population. According to Purnimy Manet, the assistant to the secretary general of the United Nations and замглавы ЮНФПА, «the trend goes in a correct direction, but speed to which it occurs, of course, is insufficient». And as has reminded "Gazete.Ru" the head of the Center of studying of problems of the population экономфака the Moscow State University Valery Yelizarov, following the results of first eight months 2009 decline in population remains.
To achieve the object will stabilise a population by 2025 at 145 million level hardly probable probably, recognised the first vice-president of committee of the State Duma on health protection Nikolay Gerasimenko. This figure is registered in the concept of the demographic policy developed by Minzdravsotsrazvitija. «I doubt that we can provide a birth rate gain, the main thing that falling was not too powerful», – considers Gerasimenko.
By 2012 the situation will start «in the face of to worsen», Yelizarov warns. On change to present young parents of 1985-1987 of a birth small generations 1990 will come.
«Per 1985-1987 were born 1,2-1,3 million girls which form the present statistics of increase of birth rate. Then representatives of a cohort of 1992-1995 when girls at us was born 500-600 thousand will enter reproductive age, and we will have a prompt decrease in birth rate», – specifies Gerasimenko.
Besides death rate will raise.
According to the deputy, «generations small, children who were born per 1940-1945 now die. In some years the generation post-war, birth rate peak» will die.
Small number – not the unique characteristic of the future parents. «Not only that them will be a little, the part from them will represent become extended in 1990th years model однодетности, – Yelizarov considers. – they simply do not imagine that such to have several children». «In the aspirations people have already developed for themselves norm – to remain childless or to get only one child», – has noticed Manet in conversation with "Gazetoj.Ru".
According to Yelizarov, the policy directed on stimulation of the second and third births, will cease to be effective.
«A share of second and third children in 2007, it agree to the data of Fund of social insurance, has grown from 33 % in 2006 to estimated 49 % this year», – he recognises. The model of direct monetary support of repeated births of Manet accepted in Russia considers "risky": sooner or later it can financially appear not provided. «More favourable way – maintenance of conditions for a preschool education of children, and also formation of a long-term policy on family planning», – is specified by her. Manet considers that the Russian government will listen to such conclusions. «In Russia have realised necessity to combine both mechanisms of support, direct financial stimulation and development of the social and economic infrastructure intended for a young family», – she has confirmed.
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